Trilemma of pandemic-related health emergency, economic policy uncertainty and partisan conflict in the United States: A time-varying analysis evidence

The events in the year 2020, especially the ravaging coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has further exposed the vulnerability and connectedness associated with human health and the global economy. In the United States, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the recent political polarization, especially the sharp divide between the Republican and Democrat party has further demonstrated the heightened partisan conflict in the country. From this basis, the current study examines the time-varying Granger causality between pandemic-related health emergency, partisan conflict, and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the United States over period January 1996 to June 2020. While there is an evidence of common time-varying Granger causality between August 2005 and September 2006 from pandemic-related health emergency to partisan, the evidence of Granger causality from partisan conflict to pandemic is common in the period of January to May 2009. In addition, the Granger causality between partisan conflict and EPU is obviously common between February and May 2020. As a policy concern, we are of the opinion that mechanism toward diffusing the heightened political divide in the United States is essential and be pursued for the country’s economic and health sector challenges. © 2022, Academy of Economics and Finance.

Pandemic outbreaks (COVID-19) and sectoral carbon emissions in the United States: A spillover effect evidence from Diebold and Yilmaz index

This article extend the body of knowledge in the environmental sustainability literature by exploring the spillover effect across the United States' carbon emissions from sectoral energy consumption: from the commercial sector (CEM), transport sector (TEM), industrial sector (IEM), residential sector (REM), electric power sector (EEM). From this perspective, this study accounted for world pandemic uncertainty index (WPU) in retrospect of global episodes (coronavirus pandemic), crude oil price (WTI), and disposable income per capita (DIC). To this end, the novel spillover methodology of Diebold and Yilmaz is employed in the context of the United State for the period January 1996-February 2020. Our Study shows that total spillover effect from the forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) is 51.1%, while the rest 48.9% of the forecast variance is attributed to the idiosyncratic shocks. Furthermore, a significant contribution of 113.9% spillover effect from uncertainty due to pandemics to TME, IEM, REM, EEM, CEM, DIC, and WTI. Our study adds to the spillover index and computed the net spillover index between the outlined variables that shows the variance between the contribution of spillover to and from the spillover dynamics. Importantly, the study found that WTI, DIC, IEM, EEM, and CEM received a net spillover shock of 63.80%, 25.90%, 48.80%, 26.10%, and 53.3% from the total spillover index. However, WPU, TEM and REM are a net transmitter of spillover effect of 111.7%, 56.90%, and 48.50% respectively. These outcomes are instructive as decision-makers, stakeholders, and players in the energy sector and oil/energy market are required to pay more focus on sectors that are a net transmitter of spillover shocks such as the world pandemic uncertainty and as well those that are net receivers.